Orange County's luxury market is slower this fall, not broken. Expected market time for homes priced $4 million to $6 million climbed to 260 days in late October, while homes above $6 million actually sped up, dropping from 379 days to 253 (Steven Thomas, Reports on Housing, October 26, 2026).
That split is the whole story. Buyers at the top are still writing offers. Buyers in the middle of the luxury range are taking their time. If you are pricing or buying in Newport Beach this month, you need to know which side of that line you are on.
What is happening in the Orange County housing market right now?
Supply is up and demand is soft. Here is the county picture from the October 26 summary:
- Active inventory: 4,948 homes, up 24 in two weeks. That is 660 more than this time last year, but still 21% below the pre-COVID average of 6,010.
- Pending sales: 1,219, the lowest October count since 2007. Last year it was 1,546.
- Expected market time: 122 days, the longest since January 2019. Last year it was 83 days.
- Closed sales: 1,729 in September, down 4% from September 2025.
- Sales-to-list: 99.1%. Only 0.18% of September sales were foreclosures or short sales.
Read that last line twice. Nearly every seller in Orange County has equity. Nobody is being forced to sell. That is why prices are holding while the pace slows.
How fast are luxury homes selling in Orange County?
It depends on the price band. Expected market time is how long it would take to sell the current inventory at the current pace of pending sales. Lower is hotter.
Price range | Two weeks earlier | October 26, 2026 |
|---|---|---|
$2.5M to $4M | 125 days | 145 days |
$4M to $6M | 224 days | 260 days |
Above $6M | 379 days | 253 days |
The $4 million to $6 million band is where I see the most hesitation. Plenty of homes, fewer buyers willing to stretch. Above $6 million, buyers are less rate-sensitive and more decisive when the right home shows up.
Is Newport Beach following the county trend?
Yes, but by micro-market. Newport Beach is not one market, and One Ford Road is the cleanest example I can show you with closed data. CRMLS sales across all six collections:
One Ford Road | 2025 | 2026 through Oct 5 |
|---|---|---|
Closed sales | 14 | 10 |
Median sale price | $4,040,000 | $4,810,000 |
Median price per sq ft | $1,356 | $1,362 |
Median sale-to-list | 97.0% | 98.7% |
Median days on market | 11.5 | 28.5 |
Prices held. Homes took longer. That matches the county story exactly. Buyers are still paying, they just want to see the home is priced right before they commit. Every 2025 and 2026 sale is listed in my One Ford Road home sales breakdown.
Should buyers wait for rates to drop?
Everyone waiting for rates to drop is solving for the wrong variable.
Pending sales in Orange County are at their lowest October level since 2007. Fewer buyers means fewer competing offers, more room to negotiate, and sellers who are willing to listen. Less competition is its own kind of leverage. When rates fall, that leverage disappears and you are back in a multiple-offer market.
Watch on YouTube: Stop Waiting For 3% Rates
What should Newport Beach sellers do with 145 to 260 days of market time?
Price it right on day one. Steven Thomas titled this report "The Power of Pricing" for a reason. The county sale-to-list ratio is still 99.1%, which tells you homes that are priced correctly are selling close to asking. The homes that sit are the ones that started too high.
Prep matters just as much. I recently broke down two homes with the same floor plan that sold $725,000 apart. Paint, landscaping, lighting and staging made the difference. My full process is in how to get top dollar for a Newport Beach luxury home.
I practice what I preach. On October 20 we repriced my listing at 2 Rue Biarritz in Big Canyon to $7,495,000: five bedrooms, 5.5 baths, 4,006 square feet, built in 2021, with golf course views. In a band where buyers are moving faster, the right price gets you in front of them now instead of next quarter.
Tour it here: Big Canyon: 2 Rue Biarritz | Newport Beach.
What does this mean for the rest of 2026?
Expect the usual holiday slowdown on top of an already slower market. Sellers who list now are competing with fewer homes than spring will bring, but also fewer buyers. Buyers who act now get the best negotiating window of the year. My longer view is in the Newport Beach real estate outlook for 2026.
If you want to know where your home sits in this market, start with a home valuation or reach out to me directly. I will tell you what it is worth, not what you want to hear.
Frequently asked questions
Is the Orange County housing market slowing down in November 2026?
Yes. Expected market time hit 122 days on October 26, 2026, the longest since January 2019, and pending sales were the lowest for October since 2007 (Steven Thomas, Reports on Housing). Prices are holding because almost every seller has equity.
How long does it take to sell a luxury home in Orange County right now?
Expected market time was 145 days for $2.5M to $4M, 260 days for $4M to $6M, and 253 days above $6M as of October 26, 2026, per Steven Thomas, Reports on Housing. A well-priced home sells far faster than the average.
Are One Ford Road home prices going down?
No. The CRMLS median sale price across all six One Ford Road collections rose from $4,040,000 in 2025 to $4,810,000 in 2026 through October 5. Median days on market rose from 11.5 to 28.5. See every sale in the One Ford Road sales report.
Is now a good time to buy a home in Newport Beach?
For buyers who are ready, this is the strongest negotiating window in years. Competition is thin, and sellers with homes sitting past 30 days are open to offers. Waiting for lower rates usually means waiting for more competition.
Who is Steven Thomas?
Steven Thomas publishes Reports on Housing, a biweekly Orange County housing report that tracks inventory, demand and expected market time by price range. I use his data alongside CRMLS closed sales for my market updates.
Notes on the data
County figures are from the public summary page of Steven Thomas, Reports on Housing, Orange County, dated October 26, 2026 (summary, charts). The two-week-earlier figures are the prior values cited in that report. One Ford Road figures are my calculations from CRMLS closed sales across all six collections, with closings through October 5, 2026. The 2026 sample is 10 sales, so medians can move with a single closing.
